Amazon's Kindle Numbers: All Fluff, Zero Substance

jorgeq:

Market analysis website Seeking Alpha has posted an article on what appears to be the failure of Amazon’s “revolutionary” e-book reading device, the Kindle. Aside from the price, one of the reasons why I haven’t purchased one is because I would have like to seen one in person first but no one I know owns one and the following excerpt from the article confirms my theory. (via Apple Grapevine)

“It is very obvious that Amazon’s Kindle is a huge flop. In six months of traveling, I am yet to see a single person on any bus, train or plane with a Kindle in their hands. Contrast that with the iPod or iPhone or even the Sansa, where people can actually be seen using them everywhere.”

It is strange that Jeff Bezos hasn’t released any Kindle sales numbers. It may indeed be an indication of weaker-than-expected sales. I would also agree that Amazon should sell Kindles at some physical stores so people can try before they buy. But, I think there are several important points to consider when it comes to the Kindle:

• The Kindle has been out for about for about eight months, though supply was very constrained for the first five of those months. Given its short life, early supply constraints, low-key marketing effort, and high cost, it isn’t that surprising that you don’t see Kindles everywhere. That doesn’t necessarily mean Kindle customers don’t like their Kindles and it doesn’t necessarily mean you wouldn’t like a Kindle.
• I don’t get why people insist on comparing the Kindle to the iPod. The customers and market dynamics for an e-book reader versus a digital music player are not identical. (More people probably listen to music often than read often for instance.) But, if people insist on comparing the Kindle and the iPod, fine let’s do that.
  • When the iPod was eight months old, only around 218,000 units had been sold.
  • You see iPods used by everyone, everywhere today because the iPod is a great product, has been out for six and a half years, has sold more than 152 million units, and had a lavish marketing budget from Apple. But, it was not such a huge hit at eight months and you didn’t see it in use by everyone, everywhere at eight months.
  • Sales growth and mindshare take time. The jury is still out on the Kindle. It could be a flop, a moderate success, or a game-changer. Time will tell.
• That brings me to my most important point. Why are people (outside of investors and market analysts) so focused on Kindle sales figures and whether the Kindle is a “hit” or a “flop”? I agree that Kindle users need the Kindle to achieve a base level of success so that Amazon will keep supporting it and providing e-books for it. But, if Amazon can stay in the Kindle business and I enjoy using the Kindle, that’s all I really care about. Whether the Kindle is moderately successful or the iPod of e-book readers, I’m going to be happy either way. You should evaluate the Kindle on the basis of whether you like it, not on the basis of whether everyone else likes it.
• I love my Kindle, evangelize it to everyone, and encourage you to get one. And, if you’re ever in Richmond, VA, I would be happy to let you test drive mine!